A study modelling the spread and impact COVID-19 that was done by an UK university and published in the latest WHO report, has analyzed 4 different strategies to deal with the COVID-19 virus (1. doing nothing 2. measures to slow down infection rates 3. measures to suppress the virus like curfews and 4. combination of 3+4) and found that a ‘slowdown and suppression’ strategy (massive restriction of public life until hospitals can cope with the infected again – then gradual reduction of measures until hospital beds are full again – then massive restriction again etc.) might be the most efficient approach.

Still, it would take a mind-boggling 2 years until the population would have reached a reasonable immunity rate by itself.

It is however important to understand that this model didn’t include the possibility of analyzing prior contacts of infected patients, improvement and availability of quick testing kits, and the worldwide availability of a vaccine (which may take less than 2 years under ideal circumstances). Each of these could have an impact shortening the duration of the virus’ impact on our social and economic lives. On the other hand, the model also illustrates that it is very unlikely that everything will be back to ‘normal’ again within just several months.

English language article with links and basic explanations: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/…/covid-19-imperial-researchers…/
German language article: https://www.businessinsider.de/…/londoner-forscher-haben-i…/

Image source: Imperial College London, imperial.ac.uk